Is Education Important in Elections?

Source: Pixabay/Zipnon

I was reading the news on FLIPBOARD today and found an interesting article that examined which Republican primary voters were supporting and voting for Donald Trump during the primaries. The story itself was published in the online magazine SALON. The statistic I was most interested in was the education level of the average Trump supporter.

The article bears the rather biased title, “Anatomy of a Trump voter: How racism propelled Trump to the Republican nomination.”[i] There are all kinds of statistics in the story, which was written using data from a survey taken in late January 2016[ii], a point in time just before the launch of the caucus/primary season.

At that time the survey indicated that while Trump had a plurality of support among Republicans, the majority of Republicans preferred one of the other candidates.[iii] The author of the article concentrated on the racial makeup of Trump’s supporters but included in the data he cited the educational level achieved by those supporters as well.

14% of Trump’s Republican supporters, at the time this survey was conducted, had not finished high school. An additional 66% had no college degree. These voters were also primarily white (95%).[iv] Historically, white males with no high school diploma or no college degree have not been reliable voters. According to the US Census Bureau, white men with less than a high school education vote at a rate of 33%. It rises to 47% among white men with a high school diploma and to 57% for white men with some college but no degree.[v] Some very rough, unscientific, unweighted calculations show, historically, only about 45% of the 80% who were supporting Trump actually show up to vote in national elections. Perhaps Mr Trump will bring more of them out this go ‘round.

The number of white female voters with less than a college education who vote regularly is slightly higher than for white men with the same education. This may not help Mr Trump much considering the most recent polls show 69% of women don’t like the Republican Presidential nominee.[vi]

The education group voting in the highest percentage are those with a Bachelor’s degree or higher. These folks, men and women, across all races and ethnicities, age groups, and income levels, vote at a rate of 70% or more.[vii] The bad news for Mr Trump is that those with college degrees tend to have a negative view of him.

According to a Pew Research Poll conducted July 7, voters with at least a Bachelor’s degree are 1.6 times more likely to vote for Clinton as Trump. White voters with at least a Bachelor’s degree are 1.3 times more likely to vote for Clinton.[viii]

Among non-whites, Clinton leads by such large numbers that Trump’s only hope of winning lies with luring those white college-educated voters back into his camp, especially the females.

As history shows, the more education someone has, the more likely they are to vote. With Trump’s history of denigrating the value of a college education and a white-collar career, he has a lot of work ahead of him to convince those voters that he is their best bet.

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[i] McElwee, Sean. "Anatomy of a Trump Voter: How Racism Propelled Trump to the Republican Nomination." Saloncom RSS. Salon Media Group, Inc., 23 July 2016. Web. 23 July 2016. <http://www.salon.com/2016/07/23/anatomy_of_a_trump_voter_how_racism_propelled_trump_to_the_republican_nomination/>. via Flipboard

[ii] ibid

[iii] ibid

[iv] "Percentage of Voting-age American Citizens Who Say They Vote." News21: Profile of the American Voter. News21, n.d. Web. 23 July 2016. <http://votingrights.news21.com/static/interactives/amvoter/>. Data provided by US Census

[v] ibid

[vi] Paquette, Danielle. "Inside Donald Trump’s Strategy to Win Back Women." Washington Post. The Washington Post, 20 July 2016. Web. 23 July 2016. <https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/07/20/meet-the-woman-trying-to-fix-donald-trumps-image-with-women/>.

[vii] "Percentage of Voting-age American Citizens Who Say They Vote." News21: Profile of the American Voter. News21, n.d. Web. 23 July 2016. <http://votingrights.news21.com/static/interactives/amvoter/>. Data provided by US Census

[viii] Smith, Samantha. "7-7-2016 2-30-10 PM." Pew Research Center for the People and the Press RSS. Pew Research Center, 07 July 2016. Web. 23 July 2016. <http://www.people-press.org/2016/07/07/2-voter-general-election-preferences/7-7-2016-2-30-10-pm-2/>.